Search results for "Bayesian analysis"
showing 10 items of 21 documents
Revisiting the Epipalaeolithic-Neolithic Transition in the Extreme NW of Africa : The Latest Results of the Chronological Sequence of the Cave of Kaf…
2021
[EN] This study focuses on the chronostratigraphic sequence of the Cave of Kaf Taht el-Ghar (Dar Ben Karrich, Tétouan, Morocco) excavated in 2012 in the framework of the AGRIWESTMED research project. The broad sequence reveals a series of occupations ranging from the Pleistocene (Moroccan Aterian) to recent historical times. Our research identifies a rich Early Neolithic phase (sixth millennium cal BC) containing the earliest pottery and domesticated animal and plant remains in the western Maghreb. However, this Early Neolithic level is not an immediate successor of the last traces of the Epipalaeolithic hunter-gatherer occupation, which started at the end of the Younger Dryas (10,900–9700 …
Neogene paleogeography provides context for understanding the origin and spatial distribution of cryptic diversity in a widespread Balkan freshwater …
2017
BackgroundThe Balkans are a major biodiversity and endemism hotspot, worldwide. Among the freshwater biota, amphipods are known for their high cryptic diversity. However, little is known about the temporal and paleogeographic aspects of their evolutionary history. We used paleogeography as a framework for understanding the onset of diversification inGammarus roeselii: (1) we hypothesised that, given the high number of isolated waterbodies in the Balkans, the species is characterised by high level of cryptic diversity, even on a local scale; (2) the long geological history of the region might promote pre-Pleistocene divergence between lineages; (3) given thatG. roeseliithrives both in lakes …
The Bias of combining variables on fish's aggressive behavior studies.
2019
Made available in DSpace on 2019-10-06T16:27:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2019-07-01 Quantifying animal aggressive behavior by behavioral units, either displays or attacks, is a common practice in animal behavior studies. However, this practice can generate a bias in data analysis, especially when the variables have different temporal patterns. This study aims to use Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Models (B-HLMs) to analyze the feasibility of pooling the aggressive behavior variables of four cichlids species. Additionally, this paper discusses the feasibility of combining variables by examining the usage of different sample sizes and family distributions to aggressive …
Seasonality of spatial patterns of abundance, biomass and biodiversity in a demersal community of the NW Mediterranean Sea
2020
14 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables
Does the genetic diversity among pubescent white oaks in southern Italy, Sicily and Sardinia islands support the current taxonomic classification?
2020
AbstractMolecular diversity analysis of deciduous pubescent oaks was conducted for populations from Calabria, Sicily and Sardinia. The aims of this study were twofold. First, to provide data on the genetic diversity of pubescent oaks from an understudied area which currently exhibits one of the highest concentrations of pubescent oak species in Europe. Second, to verify if these groups of oaks are genetically distinct and if their identification is in accordance with the current taxonomic classification. Molecular analyses of leaf material of 480 trees from seventeen populations belonging to putatively different pubescent oak species (Quercus amplifolia,Q. congesta,Q. dalechampii,Q. ichnusa…
Bayesian analysis improves experimental studies about temporal patterning of aggression in fish.
2017
Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T17:15:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2017-12-01 Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) This study aims to describe a Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) approach for longitudinal designs in fish's experimental aggressive behavior studies as an alternative to classical methods In particular, we discuss the advantages of Bayesian analysis in dealing with combined variables, non-statistically significant results and required sample size using an experiment of angelfish (Pterophyllum scalare) species as case study. Groups of 3 individuals were subjected to daily observations recorded for 10 min durin…
Properties of the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW170817
2019
On August 17, 2017, the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors observed a low-mass compact binary inspiral. The initial sky localization of the source of the gravitational-wave signal, GW170817, allowed electromagnetic observatories to identify NGC 4993 as the host galaxy. In this work, we improve initial estimates of the binary's properties, including component masses, spins, and tidal parameters, using the known source location, improved modeling, and recalibrated Virgo data. We extend the range of gravitational-wave frequencies considered down to 23 Hz, compared to 30 Hz in the initial analysis. We also compare results inferred using several signal models, which ar…
Applications and Limitations of Robust Bayesian Bounds and Type II MLE
1994
Three applications of robust Bayesian analysis and three examples of its limitations are given. The applications that are reviewed are the development of an automatic Ockham’s Razor, outlier detection, and analysis of weighted distributions. Limitations of robust Bayesian bounds are highlighted through examples that include analysis of a paranormal experiment and a hierarchical model. This last example shows a disturbing difference between actual hierarchical Bayesian analysis and robust Bayesian bounds, a difference which also arises if, instead, a Type II MLE or empirical Bayes analysis is performed.
A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations
2009
This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested in Carroll [2003, Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 269-298]. The posterior model probabilities based on the Michigan survey data strongly support the proposed model. We also extend the agent-based epidemiology model by deriving for it a simple adaptation, which is suitable for estimation. Our results show that this model is able to capture the heterogeneity in households’ expe…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods in Bayesian joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data
2017
El análisis estadístico de la información generada por el seguimiento médico de una enfermedad es un reto muy importante en el ámbito de la medicina personalizada. A medida que avanza el curso evolutivo de la enfermedad en un paciente, su seguimiento genera cada vez más información que debe ser procesada inmediatamente para revisar y actualizar su pronóstico y tratamiento. Nuestro objetivo en esta tesis se centra en dicho proceso de actualización a través de métodos de inferencia secuencial en modelos conjuntos de datos longitudinales y de supervivencia desde una perspectiva Bayesiana. En concreto, proponemos la utilización de métodos secuenciales de Monte Carlo adaptados a modelos conjunto…